The week that was: Trump toughens Russia stance, slams India; Ukraine scores win; and more

Welcome b a ck to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly roundup of top international news. This week we are covering Trump’s apparent toughening of stance against Russia, his unexpected tirade against India, a win for Ukraine’s democracy, South Korea’s overture to North Korea, and Vietnam’s VinFast’s ambitious production expansion to India. So let’s get to it:

Russia bombs Kyiv… Trump bristles
In one of the largest Russian attacks on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital was hit with more than 300 drones and eight missiles in the intervening night of July 30-31. Around 179 people were injured and 31 people were killed, including five children, the youngest being just two years old. The massive strike again highlights that Russia is nowhere close to being interested in a ceasefire in the ongoing war. Note that the Kyiv attack came just after Trump announced that he was shortening the deadline he had previously given to Russia to negotiate a ceasefire. The new deadline will expire later this week, but Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is expected in Moscow for talks before that.

So, things are still up in the air. True, there has been a perceptible change in Trump’s rhetoric towards Russia for some weeks now. He appears to be losing patience with Putin. Yet, by sending Witkoff to Moscow again, it seems that he still hasn’t given up on the possibility of last-minute dialogue to stop this war. That looks unrealistic because Russia, at the moment, doesn’t feel enough pressure to end its aggression. It hasn’t switched to a full war economy, it is still making billions in energy revenues, and is inching its way forward in eastern Ukraine while bombarding Ukrainian cities and towns far away from the frontline. The way things are proceeding, the only way Russia might be forced to negotiate a ceasefire is if Trump follows through on his promised secondary sanctions against countries that buy Russian energy. And if those sanctions really bite, Moscow may be forced to rethink its aggression. That, however, still remains a big if.

Trump targets India
Over the past week, Trump chose to direct his trade ire against India, accusing the latter of fin an cing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine by buying Russian oil. Trump, in fact, announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports and an unspecified penalty for purchasing Russian oil. This would be consistent with his threats to impose secondary sanctions on countries if Russia doesn’t stop the war. But why is India in Trump’s crosshairs? After all, as India has pointed out, neither Europe nor the US has completely cut off all trade with Russia as yet. So why single out India alone for so-called indirect fueling of Russia’s war machinery? Plus, there are also doubts about this accusation. Last year when former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba had visited India, he had given an exclusive interview to this writer ( ‘India buying Russian oil is ok, but don’t fund Putin’s war machine’ ). Kuleba had clearly mentioned that Ukraine didn’t have a problem with India buying oil from Russia since it was paying for this oil in rupees that Moscow couldn’t invest towards its defence needs.

Therefore, India is right to protest against Trump’s haranguing. But there is one difference though. The Europeans and the Americans have given, and continue to give, billions of dollars for Ukraine’s defence and humanitarian needs. India, after handing over 16 consignments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, has not sent any more relief supplies to Kyiv over the last one year. Therefore, with Trump now finally looking to push Russia on the war, Washington, through threatened tariffs, might be looking to press New Delhi to take a stand. So, it is not really about India buying Russian oil, as much as it is about geopolitical alignment.

However, it remains to be seen if Trump’s tactic will work. India has been a valued South Asian partner for the US. Things might actually work out sans the language of threats. Also, China has done far, far more to sustain Russia’s aggression, that too in a more direct manner, providing Moscow with military parts, tech knowhow and other defence essentials. That’s where most of American efforts should be directed if it has to stop the war.

A win for Ukraine’s democracy

A week after a law was passed by the Ukrainian parliament that took away the independence of two anti-corruption bodies, National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), another law submitted to parliament by President Zelenskyy was passed to reverse course. This came after thousands of youngsters took to the streets of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities to protest the move to curtail NABU and SAPO. What came to be known as the cardboard protests – thanks to the creative cardboard signages the young protesters held up at their rallies – proved to be quite effective in reminding the Ukrainian government that war-time martial law was no excuse to ride roughshod over Ukraine’s hard-won democratic reforms. Plus, EU too was perturbed by the move to undermine the anti-corruption bodies and reportedly froze billions of euros in funding backed by Russian frozen assets.

All of this compelled Zelenskyy’s office to recognise that a course correction was in order. As I said in the previous edition of the weekly wrap, Zelenskyy may have had a point in passing the first legislation given concerns over Russian influence in Ukraine’s vital security and investigative institutions. But to scrap the independence of NABU and SAPO was a huge overreaction. The issue could have been addressed in another way, which is what happened ultimately. The new legislation restores NABU and SAPO’s independence and also addresses concerns over Russian influence through periodic polygraph tests for anti-graft officials.

So the takeout is that Zelenskyy realised his mistake, listened to citizens who were unhappy, and made appropriate changes. This is a great example of how a democratically elected government should work. It is responsive to people’s voices even in the midst of a war. Also, the protesters were clear that this wasn’t a demonstration against Zelenskyy’s handling of the war. They were very sensitive to the fact that their brethren were fighting for Ukraine’s sovereignty on the frontlines. Hence, their demands were only related to the changes at the two anti-corruption bodies. Now that those changes have been reversed, they are happy. The episode also shows that Ukraine’s culture of democratic activism is alive and kicking with the baton being taken up by a new generation of conscious Ukrainians. And they will not allow the hard-won gains of the Euromaidan revolution to go to waste.

Korean thaw? Unlikely
South Korea is dismantling its speakers at the border with North Korea in an apparent bid to ease tensions between the two sides. The South Korean speakers were used to blare propaganda material into the North, and were resumed last year after Pyongyang sent across nearly a thousand trash-filled balloons. Those tensions came during the previous dispensation in Seoul headed by then president Yoon Suk Yeol. However, after Yoon was impeached following his failed attempt to impose martial law, the new administration of President Lee Jae Myung has tried to repair the relationship with both North Korea and China.

However, Pyongyang is unlikely to be interested in this overture. After all, neither is it any longer interested in reunification, nor does it want genuine peace with the South. In fact, given Pyongyang’s growing strategic relationship with Moscow and its assistance to the latter in the Ukraine war, North Korea today increasingly sees itself as part of the Russia-China-Iran camp that is ranged against the US-led Western order. It very much seeks a role in the unfolding systemic clash between the two camps. Therefore, Seoul is likely to be disappointed here. North Korea, for all practical purposes, has turned its back on intra-Korea relations. And there is little hope of Pyongyang coming back to this. It is firmly with those countries that seek to upend the global order.

Vietnam’s VinFast starts production from India

In a big business move, Vietnamese electric car manufacturer VinFast started operations at its Indian factory, its first overseas plant. This is a big move by VinFast, which as an EV maker is facing tough competition from Tesla, BYD and a host of other international companies in the EV market. The factory in Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu, is also expected to produce EVs for neighbouring South Asian markets like Sri Lanka and Mauritius. But it is the Indian market – the third largest auto market in the world – that VinFast is eyeing to make a mark. Success here will catapult the company to greater heights in the overall Asian market.

But the real positive here is that VinFast, despite hailing from an economy that has just about modernised its industrial production base, has shown the ambition and drive to expand overseas. In that sense, VinFast is a shining example of Vietnam’s resilience and determination to reach new heights in economic and industrial development for itself. This in turn shows that Vietnam’s economic progress is on the right track. The country, in concluding multiple FTAs, has already emerged as one of the most robust trading nations in Southeast Asia. If it diligently keeps to this track, it is certain to become a true Asian economic dynamo like South Korea or Japan.