The world will witness a high-stakes face-to-face meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin , in Alaska on Friday (local time) to decide the fate of the war in Ukraine. What's so peculiar is that both countries are gathering to determine the trajectory of war in Ukraine without involving the leader of the country, whose future is being negotiated over his head.
However, the US president hoped for a 25 per cent chance that the summit would fail. He floated the idea that if the meeting with Putin yields a positive result, he might invite Zelenskyy for a three-way meeting. But will Russia give a green flag to it?
Russia-Ukraine peace deal
A Kremlin aide confirmed that the Ukraine crisis would dominate talks, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not be participating.
The negotiations come amid growing frustration from Trump over Putin’s refusal to halt Russia’s ongoing bombardment.
Kyiv has indicated openness to a ceasefire as an initial step toward peace, but Moscow’s current demands, such as withdrawing Ukrainian forces from the four illegally annexed regions, halting mobilization, and ending Western arms supplies, are unacceptable to Zelenskyy.
However, Trump said that any deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would be reached at a second, three-way meeting involving Zelenskyy, Putin, and himself, and not at Alaska summit.
"The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that's going to be a meeting where they make a deal," Trump told Fox News Radio.
"This meeting sets up the second meeting, but there is a 25 percent chance that this meeting will not be a successful meeting," he added.
Trade talks and India's interests
Kremlin aide said the leaders will also discuss expanding bilateral trade, emphasizing the “huge, and hitherto untapped” potential in economic cooperation. He noted the talks will include an exchange of views on ways to further develop trade and economic ties between the two countries.
Moreover, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned that India could face higher secondary tariffs if upcoming US-Russia talks fail. Speaking to Bloomberg TV, he said, “We put secondary tariffs on the Indians for buying Russian oil. And I could see if things don’t go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up.”
India currently faces an additional 25% tariff, bringing its total rate to 50%, as part of US pressure over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
Ceasefire or chess game? The Alaska agenda
The summit has been called to cover pathways to end war, secure security guarantees, and enhance the US-Russia relationship. Trump, who seems to be too excited for the meeting, hinted at "territorial swaps" as part of a peace deal. However, the territory swapping idea is deeply unpopular in Ukraine and among US allies.
Putin, who is very focused on the inclusion of Ukraine's territory, is expected to reiterate demands for halting Western arms supplies to Kyiv and freezing its military mobilisation.
The talks may touch on sanctions, Nato posture, and the possibility of renewed bilateral cooperation. Will the tariff also be considered? Trump knows. The day's schedule includes a one-on-one meeting, delegation-level talks, and a working breakfast, culminating in a joint press conference.
The guessing game
The much-awaited talk could produce either a symbolic handshake or a controversial breakthrough — with little middle ground. Trump has publicly pegged the odds of failure at 25%, while Moscow has been noncommittal, saying it "never plans ahead."
Critics fear Trump might make concessions without securing enforceable commitments, while supporters believe the very fact of a US–Russia sit-down could pave the way for de-escalation. Allies — from India to Europe and China — will be watching to see whether Trump's threats carry weight or if the meeting signals a shift toward a more transactional US foreign policy.
However, the US president hoped for a 25 per cent chance that the summit would fail. He floated the idea that if the meeting with Putin yields a positive result, he might invite Zelenskyy for a three-way meeting. But will Russia give a green flag to it?
Russia-Ukraine peace deal
A Kremlin aide confirmed that the Ukraine crisis would dominate talks, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not be participating.
The negotiations come amid growing frustration from Trump over Putin’s refusal to halt Russia’s ongoing bombardment.
Kyiv has indicated openness to a ceasefire as an initial step toward peace, but Moscow’s current demands, such as withdrawing Ukrainian forces from the four illegally annexed regions, halting mobilization, and ending Western arms supplies, are unacceptable to Zelenskyy.
However, Trump said that any deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would be reached at a second, three-way meeting involving Zelenskyy, Putin, and himself, and not at Alaska summit.
"The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that's going to be a meeting where they make a deal," Trump told Fox News Radio.
"This meeting sets up the second meeting, but there is a 25 percent chance that this meeting will not be a successful meeting," he added.
Trade talks and India's interests
Kremlin aide said the leaders will also discuss expanding bilateral trade, emphasizing the “huge, and hitherto untapped” potential in economic cooperation. He noted the talks will include an exchange of views on ways to further develop trade and economic ties between the two countries.
Moreover, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned that India could face higher secondary tariffs if upcoming US-Russia talks fail. Speaking to Bloomberg TV, he said, “We put secondary tariffs on the Indians for buying Russian oil. And I could see if things don’t go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up.”
India currently faces an additional 25% tariff, bringing its total rate to 50%, as part of US pressure over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
Ceasefire or chess game? The Alaska agenda
The summit has been called to cover pathways to end war, secure security guarantees, and enhance the US-Russia relationship. Trump, who seems to be too excited for the meeting, hinted at "territorial swaps" as part of a peace deal. However, the territory swapping idea is deeply unpopular in Ukraine and among US allies.
Putin, who is very focused on the inclusion of Ukraine's territory, is expected to reiterate demands for halting Western arms supplies to Kyiv and freezing its military mobilisation.
The talks may touch on sanctions, Nato posture, and the possibility of renewed bilateral cooperation. Will the tariff also be considered? Trump knows. The day's schedule includes a one-on-one meeting, delegation-level talks, and a working breakfast, culminating in a joint press conference.
The guessing game
The much-awaited talk could produce either a symbolic handshake or a controversial breakthrough — with little middle ground. Trump has publicly pegged the odds of failure at 25%, while Moscow has been noncommittal, saying it "never plans ahead."
Critics fear Trump might make concessions without securing enforceable commitments, while supporters believe the very fact of a US–Russia sit-down could pave the way for de-escalation. Allies — from India to Europe and China — will be watching to see whether Trump's threats carry weight or if the meeting signals a shift toward a more transactional US foreign policy.
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